There are three sides to every story. Two sides are usually those involved, and the third is somewhere in the middle of the other side, often referred to as “the truth.” A lot of what I read, particularly on social media, revolves around the industries that Glory operate in and cash. Sometimes these topics spill over into my “real life” - my life outside of work. It often happens when my friends are winding me up about the supposed impending death of cash, as they head to the bar, to pay in cash. But recently the news, in the UK at least, has been picking up and been much more vocal about the decreasing use of cash, and what this will mean in a world when the restrictions that have been placed are lifted.

With the three sides in mind, I am going to try to make my way to the 3rd side throughout this blog. I will talk about the current situation, and the impact that the pandemic has had on cash, and what the lasting effects of the pandemic’s impact on cash might be.

I don’t like awkward silences, so let’s address the elephant in the digital room, Throughout the pandemic and as a result of the measures that have been put in place, the use of cash has decreased. But that statistic does not tell the full story. The use of cash is a helpful indication of the longevity of cash in the years to come, but it is not the only metric that should be considered.

Cash in circulation is also meaningful statistic when considering cash and how long it will be considered as a viable payment method. The Financial Times reported that in the 4 weeks to April 10th the number of banknotes distributed to both individuals and businesses rose by €41.2bn, to €1.33tn.

In the FT article, reference is made to the fact that the last time such a jump in cash in circulation happened was the financial crisis in 2008. This is a telling trend that happens in times of hardship, people gravitate towards and trust cash.

It is not just the use of cash as a payment method that has decreased. All payment forms including card payments will have declined by 40% as a result of the limited spending taking place. There is, curiously, no talk about the fall in numbers of people using cash to pay. As is the case with cash, the drop in use of cards is because of two main factors: many people have been unable to work, and almost no-one can shop at any stores other than those which are food retailers or pharmacies. When being advised to buy essential products only, the presence of this restriction in itself means that spending will be limited.

So, what will payments look like in the future? That is, after all, the real question. because Cash does not operate in isolation from the other payment methods, whether it is cards, peer-2-peer payment apps or services like PayPal. It would be fair to say that some of those people who were largely users of cash in a pre-COVID world, but converted to alternative payments because of their perceptions of cash, may stick with cash alternatives.

That however does not account for the increase in cash that is now in circulation. People are still withdrawing cash, and still using it in their daily lives, or as a secure means of storing their wealth. When the medical community have been able to control the virus better, and the sense of normality returns to daily life, the cash that has been stored for safety must go somewhere. That somewhere might be back into retail banks, or it could be spent in retailers. One thing is for sure: all businesses will need to continue to accept cash. There may be some adjustments to how the cash is tendered, or how staff and consumers interact with cash, but with such vast levels of cash in circulation, the idea that we will see the complete removal of cash from the economy remains as farfetched as it ever has been.